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Solving China's Urban Crisis

JOURNAL OF URBAN TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 6 NUMBER 1, APRIL 1999

Contents

Page

v From the Editor

1 Michael P. Walsh
Assessing Transportation-Related Air Pollution in Major Cities

25 Mark A. Delucchi
Transportation and Global Climate

47 Michael P. Walsh
The Tehran Transport Emissions Reduction Project

63 Zissis Samaras
Emissions Reduction via Improvements in Engines and Fuels:
The Tehran Case

89 Roberta E. Weisbrod
Solving China's Urban Crisis: China's Transportation Energy
Future

101 Fred Moavenzadeh and Brantley Liddle
Policy and Institutional Measures for Reducing
Transport-Generated Pollution

125 Book Reviews
High Technology and Low-income Communities: Prospects for the Positive Use of Advanced Information Technology, edited by Donald A. Schon, Bish Sanyal, and William J. Mitchell; Crystal Fire by Michael Riordan and Lillian Hoddeson; Thinking Ecologically: The Next Generation of Environmental Policy, edited by Marian R. Chertow and Daniel C. Esty

131 Contributors

Page v

From the Editor

All the articles in this issue except that on China, emerge from an effort of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), an entity created by the World Bank, the U.N. Development Programme, and the U.N. Environment Programme. The GEF has as its goals protecting the global environment and promoting economic growth in developing countries. Because cities are usually the engines of a country's economic growth -- as well as major causes of its environmental problems -- many GEF projects are urban centered.

Air pollution, in particular, is associated with metropolitan areas and is of particular concern to GEF because it has both global and local effects. And it is the transportation sector that is responsible for most urban air pollution. The GEF effort that is the focus of this issue was a program called the Tehran Transportation Emissions Reduction Project (TERP). Tehran was chosen by the GEF as the focus of an environmental project because the city suffers from severe air pollution, most of it resulting from transportation, and because it was deemed an ideal location to examine whether alleviation of global and local air pollution could be achieved simultaneously. The conclusions of the papers presented here offer a qualified "Yes, but...."

The first of Michael Walsh's two papers offers an overview of the contribution of the transport sector to the air pollution of major cities. His very exhaustive analysis surveys both the health effects and the global climate effects of transport emissions. Mark Delucchi's paper has as its ambitious goal the quantifying -- and the pricing -- of transport emissions. After explaining his model, he addresses the case of Tehran and concludes that agencies must exercise great caution when trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles because those efforts will not necessarily result in lower levels of local -- and more costly -- air pollution. He argues that the focus for cities should be on improving local air quality, and, as far as possible, doing so without doing serious harm to the global climate.

In his second article, Michael Walsh details all of the various changes examined by the TERP project to improve Tehran's air quality. In addition to changes in vehicles, fuel, and public transportation, the project also considered traffic management and operation schemes, pricing mechanisms, and urban planning initiatives. The quality of Tehran's air was then projected out to the year 2015 based on scenarios that accounted for the possibility of the city making no changes and also for the possibilities that the city would make some, or many, changes. Zissis Samaras writes specifically about two of those changes-in engines and in fuels. He too compares the benefits of making short-, medium-, and long-term interventions to the consequences of not taking these actions.

The article by Roberta Weisbrod on China's transportation future was included in this issue because of the alternative vision of transportation development it recognizes. China is poised to experience an explosion of motorization at a time when it has not yet fully committed itself to the fuel and engine infrastructures of the developed countries. Already faced with cities suffering some of the worst air pollution in the world, China might develop its motorization via cleaner, alternative fuels and methods of propulsion, and in doing so create a transportation infrastructure that is safer and cleaner than that of the developed countries.

The issue closes with Fred Moavenzadeh and Brantley Liddle's policy discussion. They examine the policies that are available to cities and regions trying to create transport sectors that are both economical and sustainable. Echoing Weisbrod, they explain that developing countries are in the position to develop their economies and environmental institutions at the same time, and because of that, they have the opportunity to adopt paths of development that are environmentally sound-avoiding the mistakes of developed countries. Ways in which that can happen have been presented in this issue; whether that will happen is an open matter.

Page 89

Solving China's Urban Crisis: China's Transportation Energy Future

Roberta E. Weisbrod

CHINA, unlike most of the developed and many of the developing countries in the world, is not heavily urbanized -- approximately 30 percent of its population lives in cities. Yet, China contains many of the world's mega cities. Similarly, while China is one of the least motorized major world powers, air pollution from vehicles is the major source of China's critical urban public health crisis. Furthermore, urbanization and motorization are both increasing rapidly in China. As it addresses this critical air pollution problem, there are signs that China is poised to adopt radical fuel and vehicle policies that would mark a dramatic departure from its own current transportation policies as well as from those of the developed world.

Air Pollution in China's Cities
Respiratory disease is a leading cause of death in China, accounting for approximately 25 percent of all deaths, an extraordinarily high percentage. The rates of the chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, including emphysema and chronic bronchitis, are extraordinary even by developing world standards -- twice the average for developing countries.1

In China, as elsewhere, rates of respiratory disease are clearly related to the levels of airborne pollutants. Three studies of the late 1980s and mid-1990s -- in Beijing, Shenyang, and Chongqing -- as reviewed by the World Bank, showed exposure-response relationships between high levels of particulates and sulfur dioxide and health effects such as loss of pulmonary function, chronic respiratory illness, bronchitis, increased hospital visits and admissions, and premature death.2

Many of the cities of China have extremely high levels of harmful air pollutants. In 1995, concentrations of particulates and sulfur dioxide were between two and five times in excess of public health standards established by the World Health Organization (WHO). Beijing and Shenyang had four times the WHO particulate standards and twice the level of particulates of Bangkok, legendary for its soot. Sulfur dioxide (SO) levels in Beijing, Shenyang, Taiyuan, Jinan and Chongqing all exceeded WHO standards -- Chongqing by almost six fold.3

In 1997, China's urban population was 370 million and a significant portion of that population suffered the world's worst air pollution. Chongqing, the city with the worst sulfur dioxide pollution of any of China's major cities, is situated along the Yangste River in the center of the country and has a population (after recently redrawn boundaries) of 30 million. If we add to that figure the populations with extreme exceedences of WHO standards -- metropolitan Shanghai (13.6 million), Beijing (11.4 million), and the city of Shenyang, located in Liaoning Province in the north (3.6 million) -- it is clear that upwards of 60 million people in China are subject to severe air pollution.

Vehicle Emissions and China's Urban Air Pollution
That vehicle emissions are the major source of air pollution in Chinese cities is counter-intuitive given the common knowledge that the predominant energy source in China is coal. In 1995, coal provided 73 percent of China's energy use compared to 26 percent of the energy use of the United States. In the United States, most of the coal, 90 percent, is used for electrical power generation --hence emissions are centralized and controllable. In China, 75 percent of the coal is used to generate heat for industries, businesses, and homes. China's energy mix is so dependent on coal that 40 percent of its rail service carries coal or coal ash waste. For the future, China is attempting to guide coal use toward electrical generation, which should reduce this major, but not predominant, source of air pollution.

Air monitoring in its cities shows that vehicular emissions are the predominant source of China's urban air pollution. The country's central government has concluded that 50-60 percent of urban air pollution is the result of vehicle emissions, based on the results of an urban air monitoring program that benefited from the technical Bailey assistance of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.4

According to a recent U.S. Embassy Report, "China's Development of Alternative Fuel Vehicles," monitoring data for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide have shown unacceptably high levels.5 For example, the national environmental monitoring network showed exceedences of China's rather loose standards for nitrogen oxide in 34 of the 94 cities monitored. (China's standards for NO allow for tenfold higher emissions than those of the European Union). In Guangzhou, weekly monitoring indicated that nitrogen oxides (NOx) are the major pollutant 94 percent of the time; for Beijing NOx is the major pollutant 52 percent of the time. Most of the NOx emissions are from motor vehicles.6 This is significant because nitrogen oxides are a key component in the formation of ground level ozone, which is directly implicated in lung damage.

Measurements also indicated that in Guangzhou and Beijing, concentrations of carbon monoxide frequently exceed China's national standard-which allows eight times more emissions than the European Union.7

The Role of Transportation Fuel in Improving -- or Worsening -- China's Air Pollution
Although China's transportation sector is small compared to that of other countries such as the United States, its fuel choices are already, and will continue to become, critical issues in China. This is so despite the fact that China has less than 6 percent of the number of vehicles as the United States (11 million vs.190 million). Similarly, the U.S. transportation sector (motor, marine, and air) accounts for 27 percent of that nation's total energy budget, while in China, that number is 7 percent.8 Despite its relatively small scale, however, the reasons that China's transportation energy sector is important, beyond the current measured emissions, are the potentially enormous size of the sector and its rapid rate of growth.

China now has one vehicle per 115 people, while the United States has one vehicle per 1.3 people. How many vehicles will China have in twenty years? It is unlikely that China will have the same degree of saturation as the United States and have 900 million vehicles on the road. (The total world population of vehicles is currently 600 million.)

In order to answer the question of China's vehicle growth, Lee Schipper and Gareth Lewis-Davis examined the issue in their paper, "The China Syndrome: Motorization in the Largest Countries in Asia -- Implications for Oil, Carbon Dioxide, and Transportation."9 Looking at vehicle growth for a large number of nations, they found that vehicle growth strongly correlated with per-capita income and had a positive relation in nations with car production/assembly facilities and with road infrastructure. On this basis, Schipper posited three scenarios, the most likely of which is that by 2020 China will have 180 million vehicles, exclusive of trucks. Trucks could add an additional 30 percent more vehicles for a total of 234 million vehicles. Schipper's scenario would mean that by 2020, China would have the same order of magnitude of vehicles as the United States, on a land mass of approximately the same size. However, those vehicles would be operating in a country already facing very severe air and water pollution problems and having a population four times larger than that of the United States.

Can China achieve what it took the United States 100 years to achieve -- 200 million vehicles by 2020? Consider the rate of growth of China's vehicle population. The number of vehicles in China tripled in the decade between 1986-1996. To get to the 200-230 million vehicles by 2020, the rate of manufacture of vehicles will have to more than triple each decade, and China would have to produce an average of approximately 10 million vehicles annually. As a comparison, the United States currently manufactures 10 million vehicles annually. Currently, China manufactures 1.5 million vehicles annually and imports another 100,000. (Heavy-duty vehicles, trucks, and buses outnumber cars significantly; in 1996, there were six million trucks and buses vs. 3.6 million cars.) China already manufactures vehicles at a rate 15 percent the U.S. rate; the average often million vehicles per year that China would have to produce is more than possible.

Energy Implications of the Projected Growth of China's Transport Sector
In the last decade, the number of vehicles operating in China has tripled. Vehicle miles traveled have increased, as has the use of petroleum. Petroleum oil supplies 20 percent of China's energy needs and about one-third of that feeds the transportation sector, while the remainder is used as a feedstock for petrochemicals.

In the same decade that the number of vehicles tripled, the rate of oil consumption grew 70 percent, and in 1993, China, the fifth largest oil-producing country in the world, became a net importer of petroleum two years earlier than predicted.10 The increase in petroleum use was clearly related to transportation. More than 10 percent of the oil to meet China's annual consumption needs is now imported. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that by 2000 China will import nearly one million barrels of oil daily.11

China knows it has to make critical decisions and make them soon. If it continues to rely on petroleum as the source of transportation fuel, it will have to choose not whether, but how much, to be dependent on securing new internal oil supplies and importing oil. This would entail a large capital investment. There would have to be pipelines from the internal and external sources, new port facilities, refineries, oil trucks, and gasoline fueling stations. An immense and complicated infrastructure would have to be laid down if petroleum is used. The cost of this new infrastructure could be tracked, and it could be calculated.

The decision to use petroleum as the major fuel would have negative environmental consequences for China and for the rest of the world. For China, an increase of vehicles running on oil means more particulates, more nitrogen oxides, more sulfur dioxide, more carbon monoxide, more volatile organic compounds, more toxic components, and more greenhouse gases.

China's extensive use of coal results in the export of sulfur dioxide in the form of acid rain. And after the United States, it is the second major producer of carbon dioxide -- the United States produces 1.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually while China produces 0.8 billion tons. These emissions would grow markedly if the vehicles to be added to China's fleet between now and 2020 were to continue to be petroleum-based.

Problems regarding resource shortages could also follow China's expansion of a petroleum-based vehicle fleet. Figures from 1995 indicated that the United States used 17.7 million barrels/day. China used 3.4 million barrels/day, of which about one million barrel s were used for transportation. If China were to have as many vehicles in 2020 as the United States has today, and if it were to use gasoline-fueled vehicles, it is projected that it would use a comparable amount of oil for transportation (12 million barrels/day).12 Much of that oil would have to be imported. The United States currently imports over 50 percent of its oil, and China imports over 10 percent. It is predicted that by 2010, those figures would jump to 60 percent and 20 percent respectively. The Energy Information Agency also estimates that by 2020 OPEC producers will account for 52 percent of the world's oil supply.13 This would make the United States and China dependent on, and competitive for, oil from unstable parts of the world.

To address the air-pollution, energy, and financial implications of China's transportation sector growth, the World Bank posited three scenarios: (1) the automobile strategy, business as usual; (2) the automobile strategy, but with improvements to vehicles and upgrading gasoline and diesel; and (3) the land-use/public-transit strategy, which would try to cluster developments along corridors with established transport nodes.14

The capital cost of the land-use/public-transit strategy would be high; it would take a $24 trillion investment made between 2000 and 2010. The capital cost of the automobile-based strategies is yet higher, about $29 trillion in the same period, and those strategies incur the added costs of' much higher automotive fuel use.

In terms of the environment, the business-as-usual strategy of unconstrained growth of vehicles with no enforcement of emissions standards would result in an approximately 25-fold increase in the amount of emissions released in 2020 as opposed to the base year of 1993. According to the World Bank, the improvement scenario, which would consist of implementing and enforcing tough emissions standards and improving traffic management, would hold the emissions to a 15-fold increase. Even the land-use strategy, with improved bus-based public transit, would result in an approximately fivefold increase in emissions. And although this would be the "cleanest" strategy, it would, nevertheless, produce three times the nitrogen oxides, double the volatile organic compounds, and four times the level of particulates. These pollutants are all already at extraordinarily high levels.

In sum, cleaner cars would not be enough; better gasoline and diesel would not be enough; and even improved transit and land-use planning would not be enough to solve the country's vehicle air pollution. Vehicles that run on clean fuels, alternatives to gasoline and diesel, will be required to solve China's urban air pollution problems.

New Transportation Fuels for China
The big question is what fuel will China use to power its vehicles? What are the implications in terms of fuel infrastructure and in terms of vehicle technology capability? Does China have the ability to obtain alternative fuels for its vehicles? Is the internal combustion engine, which burns gasoline refined from petroleum, the only possibility?

Petroleum would not be the fuel of choice if automobiles were being invented today. From exploration, transport, storage, and use, petroleum poses environmental problems.15 Knowing what we do, we would seek a fuel that was rich in hydrogen, had little carbon, and no polycyclic aromatics, benzene, or inorganic contaminants like nitrogen or sulfur. We would use electric propulsion, which is two-three times more efficient than internal combustion engines, and which provides the benefits of vast reductions of emissions from the oxidation products of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur.

There is considerable evidence that China recognizes that if urban air pollution is to be controlled, ultimately hydrogen should be the fuel and electricity the method of propulsion used to power the engines of vehicles.16 This means the development of the hydrogen fuel cell. Hydrogen fuel cells generate electricity directly without the intermediary of fire. By a catalytic process, hydrogen decomposes to protons and electrons that separate at a membrane. The protons pass through the membrane while the electrons generate electricity. The end product is water, clean enough to drink. Hydrogen fuel cells already provide power for a variety of functions in urban buildings, and are being field tested in transportation. Fuel cells are currently powering buses in Chicago and Washington, D.C.

Developing Hydrogen Fuel Cells
For a direct path to hydrogen fuel cells, building an infrastructure using methane, or natural gas, may be the best choice as the source of hydrogen. Other organic sources could also be used, but natural gas (NG) is generally innately cleaner than the other choices. Methane has the virtue of being widely available and readily transportable. Methane is available from many sources, some renewable; it is flared from oil fields, purged from coal mines, flared from sewage treatment plants, and vented from landfills. Methane is readily transported via pipeline. (Transport of hydrogen through pipelines requires special infrastructure-hydrogen makes normal steel brittle.)

How could methane be used as a fuel for fuel cells? Methane could be converted to hydrogen and the hydrogen pumped into a vehicle for storage and use. Alternatively, methane could be stored in a vehicle and reformed into hydrogen as needed for use. Finally, methane could be converted into methanol, a liquid fuel, convenient For use from a pump similar to a gasoline pump, which could be reformulated into hydrogen in a vehicle at the point of use.

Methane is an environmentally sound automotive fuel in its own right, although with some limitations. Methane as automotive fuel in an internal combustion engine, compared to gasoline, releases 95 percent less carbon monoxide, 80 percent fewer hydrocarbons (volatile organic compounds that are ground-level ozone producers), 30 percent fewer nitrogen oxides (that are also producers of ground-level ozone), virtually no particulates, but only 15 percent less carbon dioxide. Because methane forms 80-85 percent as much carbon dioxide as gasoline during combustion, it's not the perfect fuel.

The United States has spent the better part of a century building an infrastructure and vehicles to make use of petroleum-derived fuels. For the United States to make a shift to clean fuels and more efficient engines would require massive and costly changes. However, China is only now beginning to develop its transportation infrastructure systems, and, therefore, has not yet built a committed infrastructure and seems to realize it has a golden opportunity to chart a different course.

China can follow an infrastructure strategy that first uses methane as automotive fuel directly and then uses it as the source of hydrogen for fuel cells. To do this, China would need adequate supplies of methane, and it would have to possess an adequate technological capacity.17

China's Methane Resources
Methane, or natural gas, accounts for only 1.6 percent of China's energy supply. However, China has signified its desire to increase its supply of natural gas.18 China wants to step up production to 8 percent in 16 years (2015).19 The likely sources of natural gas to meet the demand are coal-bed methane, imported liquid natural gas (LNG)- transported by LNG vessel and requiring specific port infrastructure-and natural gas transported by pipelines from domestic and foreign fields.20

China seems to be pursuing all avenues in its quest for natural gas. It is seeking foreign partners to help develop major sources of domestic natural gas. China is also stepping up imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and building a series of terminals at ports to accept LNG tankers.21

The most promising source of methane is coal-bed methane. Ninety-five percent of China's coal comes from underground mines, which tend to contain methane. The deeper the mine, the more methane there is because storage capacity for the methane increases with depth and pressure. China has begun to exploit this methane, generally for local projects.22

China's coal-bed methane reserves are estimated to be twenty times higher than its proven gas reserves, which would make China the nation with the world's third largest gas reserves. While most of China's energy sources are not near population centers, there is a coal-bed methane mine area in the Anhui province, inland from Shanghai where the international energy corporation, Texaco, has projected a $500 million development. Other major fuel companies are working with China to bring Siberian gas (from the Kovitkinskoye field) via a 2,000-mile pipeline to China or from the promising fields in Bangladesh.23 The point is that China wants to develop natural gas-and seems to have a wealth of possibilities to explore.

China's Technological Capacity
To use methane as an interim fuel for hydrogen fuel cells, China needs three technologies: methane-powered vehicles, electric vehicles, and fuel cells. China has all three capabilities.24 For example, it has 500,000 buses of which 2,500 already run on natural gas. (The United States has 65,000 buses of which more than 2,000 run on an alternative fuel, mostly natural gas.) China uses a different technology for their natural gas buses. Rather than compressing natural gas, they store methane on top of the bus in a simple bag that deflates when empty. These buses are deployed where natural gas is plentiful, for example, in the Province of Sichuan and in the cities of Chengdu and Zigong.

In addition there are a large number of ongoing conversions of vehicles to LNG and CNG. For example, the city of Haikou, capital of Hainan Island. is investing $3.6 million to convert 5,400 buses and cars to LNG.25

China is researching and developing electric vehicles.26 Electrical vehicles manufactured by General Electric Corporation are among those being tested in China's National Electric Vehicle and Test Program in Guangdong Province. The vehicles include electric pickup trucks that will be powered by the wind generation of electricity, yielding "totally emission-free transportation." The thirty-month test program involves 30 vehicles -- cars, trucks, and buses -- from many manufacturers from within and without China, all of which will be tested in Shantou City, Guangdong, and nearby Nan'ao Island.27 To underline its commitment, China will host the Sixteenth Annual Electric Vehicle Symposium, EV-16, in Beijing in October 1999.28

China is researching and putting into operation transport using hydrogen fuel cells.29 For example, a United Nations Development Programme project will put a small number of PEM fuel-cell buses on the streets.30 And China will host the Thirteenth World Hydrogen Conference in Beijing in the year 2000.

China's Commitment to the Environment
A recent report from the U.S. Embassy describing China's "Second Annual Beijing International Presentation Seminar on Electric Vehicles and Alternative Fuel Vehicles Technology" noted, "the events also illustrated that China's interest in alternative fuels is less derived from a search for alternative fuel sources and more from an effort to alleviate increasingly serious urban pollution, of which a rapidly growing amount is emitted by motor vehicles."31

As a result of the urban air monitoring mentioned earlier, the central government of China has moved to seek substantial reductions of the automotive emissions in two years. The State Council has banned leaded gasoline as of July 1,2000; new cars will have to have electric fuel injection and catalytic converters. China seeks to have an 80 percent reduction of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons.

Most important, the State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) has issued a notice barring dealers from trading in substandard vehicles and stipulating vehicles for sale must have emissions certificates. Manufacturers must file emissions test results with provincial governments. This kind of enforcement action has teeth and could prove effective.

China's cities have been monitoring emissions and may impose stricter laws faster than the central government. (Like municipalities in the United States, localities can impose laws stricter than national laws.) For example, Beijing banned leaded gasoline after the end of 1998 and put in place strict emissions standards for other automotive pollutants. China on the national level will not ban leaded gas until 2000.

China's central government recognizes that car costs will go up and some companies among its 120 manufacturing automobiles will go out of business. Fleets are taking this seriously with reports of accelerating conversions of taxis and buses to natural gas.

The U.S. Embassy reports that there are a small but rapidly growing number of alternatively fueled vehicles (mostly taxis and buses), relaying that according to China's State Environmental Protection Agency at the end of 1997 there were almost 4,600 compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles and over 1,300 liquefied petroleum gas (propane) vehicles (LPG). The vehicles are in operation in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hainan Province, Xi'an, Harbin, Urumqi, Shenzhen, and Mianyang, all of which have been selected as "National CNG and LNG Application and Demonstration Cities (and Provinces)." More than 20 provinces, cities, and autonomous zones were chosen as fueling station sites for alternative fuel (46 CNG and 22 LPG). To systematically push forward with CNG and LPG vehicles, China has set up a "National LPG and CNG Coordination Group."

The Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department, at a recent Alternative Fuel Vehicle Conference in Beijing, reported on Hong Kong's pilot project with LPG taxis. The 30 LPG taxis using four temporary LPG filling stations were found suitable in terms of performance, emissions, and operating costs, with a significant fuel savings using LPG compared to diesel. The taxis were as reliable as diesel and ran far more quietly. The Hong Kong government proposes that all new taxis will use LPG by 2000, noting that 90 percent of Japan's taxis already do.

In conclusion, the evidence is clear that China is pushing Forward with alternative fuel vehicles, is engaged in realizing the potential of fuel cells, and is positioning itself to leapfrog over the more mature economies that seek to perfect outdated, inefficient, and wasteful technologies.32

 

Notes

INFORM, Inc. is a research and education not-for-profit organization that identifies ways of doing business that arc environmentally sustainable. INFORM's Sustainable Transportation Program is directed toward clean fuels for transportation. China at the Crossroads, written by James S. Cannon and produced by INFORM, served as the foundation for this paper.

 

Endnotes

1 Clear Water, Blue Skies

2 Ibid.

3 Ibid.

4 Bailey

5 U.S. Department of State

6 Ibid.

7 Ibid.

8 Cannon, China at the Crossroads

9 Schipper and Lewis-Davis

10 U.S. EPA

11 Logan and Chandler

12 U.S. Department of Transportation

13 Energy Information Agency

14 Clear Water, Blue Skies

15 Cannon all

16 Cannon 1996

17 Cannon China at the Crossroads

18 Logan and Chandler

19 Johnson

20 Logan and Chandler

21 Ibid.

22 U.S. EPA

23 Logan and Chandler

24 Cannon China at the Crossroads

25 Logan and Chandler

26 Cannon China at the Crossroads

27 General Motors Corporation

28 U.S. Department of State

29 Cannon China at the Crossroads

30 Logan and Chandler

31 U.S. Department of State

32 Ibid.

 

Bibliography

Marianne Bailey (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), personal communication (February 1, 1999).

James S. Cannon, Drive for Clean Air (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1989). James S. Cannon, China at the Crossroads (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1998).

James S. Cannon, Gearing Up for Hydrogen: America's Road to Sustainable Transportation (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1998).

James S. Cannon, Harnessing Hydrogen: The Key to Sustainable Transportation (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1996).

James S. Cannon, Paving the Way for Natural Gas Vehicles (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1993)

James S. Cannon, Reformulating Gasoline: Cleaner Air on the Road to Nowhere (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1994).

James S. Cannon, Spotlight on New York: A Decade of Progress in Alternative Transportation Fuels (New York: INFORM, Inc., 1997).

Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century, China 2020 Series (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1997).

Energy Information Agency (EIA), International Energy Outlook 1998: With Projections Through 2020 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo98/home.html> (April 1998)

General Motors Corporation, "GM and China Further Cooperate on Electric Vehicle," press release (General Motors Corporation, June 8, 1998)

Ian Johnson, "For Chinese, Natural Gas is Growing in Importance," Wall Street Journal (August 26, 1998).

Jeffrey Logan and William Chandler, "Natural Gas Gains Momentum: To Realize

China's Natural Gas Potential, Beijing Should Remove Key Barriers to Foreign Investment," China Business Review (July/August 1998)

Lee Schipper and Gareth Lewis-Davis, "The China Syndrome: Motorization in the Largest Countries in Asia -- Implications for Oil, Carbon Dioxide, and Transportation," paper presented at the International Association for Energy Economics (Quebec City, May 1998).

U.S. Department of State, China Embassy, "China's Development of Alternative Fuel Vehicles" (December 8, 1998)

U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Statistics Annual Report, 1998 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation, 1998).

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Reducing Methane Emissions from Coal Mines in China: The Potential for Coal-Bed Methane Development," public review draft, EPA 430-R-96-005 (June 1996).

 

Journal of Urban Technology, volume 6, Number I, pages v-vi and 89-100.
Copyright (c) 1999 by The Society of Urban Technology
All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.
ISSN: 1063-0732/$7.00